What will shape the next wave of Ethereum scaling

Ethereum ecosystem scaling has moved from principle to precise production-grade infrastructure. Optimistic Rollups, ZK Rollups, main Layer 1 upgrades like The Merge and The Dencun improve (EIP-4844), and different Layer 2 scaling options have helped remodel Ethereum from a congested base layer into the core of a quickly rising multi-layer ecosystem.

The query is now not if scaling for Ethereum shall be potential, however what kind of scaling shall be carried out subsequent? Which implementation will have an effect on the place builders construct? How will rollup economics have an effect on liquidity and worth flows on-chain?

Let’s check out some key predictions that can speed up Layer 2 adoption and outline the subsequent wave of Ethereum scaling in 2026.

Why 2026 is a crucial yr for Ethereum scaling

Surge in L2 adoption from 2023 to 2025

Layer 2 Whole Worth Locked has grown sharply since 2023. On the time, L2s collectively held just below $4 billion in worth. By October 2025, that determine had climbed to roughly $47 billion. Each day transactions on L2s have adopted go well with, recording as excessive as 1.9 million transactions per day in 2025, eclipsing the Ethereum mainnet.

The development noticed between 2023 and 2025 tells one story: a serious shift is underway. Builders and customers are more and more turning to L2s for high-throughput use circumstances.

Ethereum hits mainstream fee & client functions

Between 2024 and 2025, Ethereum L2s skilled a surge in real-world use circumstances, with Base rising as Coinbase’s consumer-focused rollup and a dominant community for Farcaster and light-weight SocialFi experiences.

Likewise, gaming studios equivalent to Atari, Lotte Group, Nexon, and Sky Mavis have adopted app-specific chains to scale back charges and improve execution efficiency. This isn’t restricted to gaming studios. Prediction markets, stablecoin funds, and tokenized real-world belongings have additionally discovered sustainable properties on rollups, the place fuel prices now not prohibit experimentation.

Bottlenecks

Regardless of the expansion of Layer 2 options, which has resulted in improved transaction speeds and decrease prices, sure scaling bottlenecks, equivalent to knowledge availability (DA), bridging effectivity, and value fragmentation, stay. The method of storing knowledge required for transaction verification, compared to execution, is pricey, making a state of affairs the place many are purchasing for cheaper knowledge availability layers.

Likewise, liquidity motion throughout Layer 2 bridges can typically be topic to delays or require additional belief in third-party suppliers, which might generally complicate the method or expose customers to danger.

Ever heard about the identical belongings, like ETH, BTC, and USDT, present on completely different chains, and with variable pricing? That’s liquidity fragmentation – an incidence that reduces capital effectivity, spreads liquidity skinny, and will increase slippage, typically forcing customers to hop from one community to a different, attempting to find the most effective value.

These bottlenecks type the backdrop for the key predictions forward.

The present state of layer 2s

Whole L2 TVL

In line with knowledge from L2BEAT, the whole L2 TVL at the beginning of 2025 was about $44B. It peaked at $49B in October, and in December, the worth is at about $38B. Arbitrum One leads the pack with roughly 44% of L2 complete worth locked, adopted by Base Chain at 33%, OP Mainnet at 6%, and Lighter at 3.5%.

The remaining TVL is distributed throughout ZKsync Period and rising chains like Linea, Ink, Katana, and Starknet. Collectively, these networks assist hundreds of thousands of each day energetic customers.

Rise of client appchains

Shopper-focused appchains are rising. They’re designed and optimized round person expertise, moderately than strict decentralization trade-offs. Ethereum L2s like Base, Mantle, Blast, and Linea deal with simplified onboarding, low charges, and quick finality. Base, specifically, has turn out to be a general-purpose client chain and a gentle entry level for non-crypto audiences. It leverages Coinbase’s infrastructure and integrates seamlessly with its 100 million+ customers.

Modular L2 ecosystem enlargement

As rollups scale, the modular blockchain thesis has gained traction, emphasizing the separation of execution, settlement, and knowledge availability. Devoted DA layers emerged as rollups sought options to Ethereum’s restricted and costly DA capability. Celestia, the primary purpose-built knowledge availability blockchain, gives considerably decrease prices than Ethereum by focusing solely on DA and leveraging knowledge availability sampling.

EigenDA approaches the issue in another way through the use of Ethereum restaking to create a scalable DA layer secured by financial ensures moderately than native execution. This mannequin permits a extra versatile DA market whereas sustaining shut alignment with Ethereum’s safety assumptions.

By 2025, extra DA options equivalent to Close to DA and Avail expanded the ecosystem, giving rollups a rising menu of DA choices optimized for decrease prices, larger throughput, and ranging belief tradeoffs.

Starknet & zkSync’s progress

Zero-knowledge rollups have matured considerably. Starknet improved throughput through Volition, Cairo optimizations, and compressed proofs. It additionally proved to be production-ready for complicated functions, equivalent to decentralized exchanges and gaming. Likewise, zkSync expanded with Hyperchains, scaled to deal with over 100 transactions per second with sub-cent charges, and enabled L3 networks to deploy with customizable execution environments.

OP Superchain imaginative and prescient rollout

The Superchain is a long-term imaginative and prescient for Optimism to create a community of OP Stack blockchains which might be related, interoperable, and share requirements, infrastructure, and governance. The thought is to get a number of remoted chains to behave like a single ecosystem. Networks like Base, Zora, Frax, and Mode are a part of the evolving ecosystem. Additionally, builders can now construct rollups which might be appropriate with Superchain requirements.

You will need to be aware that not all OP Stack chains are absolutely built-in with each Superchain characteristic. Many are at completely different levels and never but configured for messaging or shared sequencing. Additionally, sure interoperability options are usually not but absolutely realized. By 2026, this imaginative and prescient might converge additional into sensible interoperability.

Prediction #1 — ZK Rollups turn out to be the default for high-value transactions

Decrease proving prices

By design, Zero-knowledge rollups provide higher privateness, safety, and quicker finality when in comparison with Optimistic rollups. Nonetheless, proving on ZK rollups is complicated and computationally costly. This implies ZK rollups, in the mean time, are usually not an economically viable possibility for low-value transfers and high-frequency client transactions. Having stated that, a number of implementations are already underway to scale back ZK’s prices.

These embrace decentralized proving marketplaces, algorithmic enhancements to scale back compute per transaction, a shift to {hardware} acceleration (GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs), and parallelized proving that splits proof technology throughout a number of machines. Moreover, a serious structural unlock, equivalent to recursive ZK proofs, can also be within the works.

A full-scale implementation of those approaches by 2026 is predicted to slender the fee hole, making ZK rollups economically aggressive for a wider vary of functions, together with low-value and high-throughput transactions.

Sooner finality

Optimistic rollups (ORs), by design, assume transaction validity and depend on a fraud-proof system with a 7-day dispute window. Whereas this execution appears easy and low-cost, finality takes a very long time, and withdrawals are delayed. ZK rollups, then again, provide immediate finality and fast withdrawals, albeit at the next computational value in the mean time. Nonetheless, the pace of finality supplied by ZK rollups shall be a aggressive benefit, particularly for institutional settlements, cross-chain transfers, and high-value DeFi operations.

zkEVM maturity

With a number of zkEVM implementations anticipated to achieve manufacturing maturity in 2026, the execution hole between zkEVMs and native EVM chains is predicted to slender even additional.

Scroll matures right into a secure, production-ready zkEVM with robust developer mindshare. Polygon zkEVM integrates deeply with the Polygon AggLayer structure. zkSync Period runs a strong L2 with increasing L3 deployments.

Institutional adoption of ZK-based L2s

Zero-knowledge Layer 2 scaling resolution gives safety, privateness, settlement certainty, simpler proof-based auditing, and decrease bridging dangers. Establishments that prioritize these options will more and more look to zk-based techniques. Large banks, mainstream fee processors, and even asset managers fall into this class and can seemingly take decisive steps in the direction of constructing core functions on Zk-based Layer 2s.

Prediction #2 — Large development in L3s and app-specific rollups

Why apps favor proudly owning the complete stack

By 2026, a variety of profitable decentralized functions will launch their very own app-specific Layer 3s, in a bid to “personal the complete stack.” In easy phrases, “proudly owning the complete stack” implies that functions have direct management over charges, efficiency, and are usually not depending on shared Layer 2s.

They’ll summary or subsidize fuel, use stablecoins or customized tokens for funds, isolate themselves from community congestion, and seize all sequencer charges. For top-volume functions like video games, prediction markets, and decentralized social protocols, a migration to OP Stack L3s or Arbitrum Orbit is probably going.

On-chain gaming L3s, DeFi-specific rollups

Layer 3s are usually understood as app-specific rollups that dwell on prime of L2s. They grant builders the power to make particular adjustments to execution environments, regulate price fashions, and tune efficiency. All of those are perfect for use circumstances the place excessive throughput, predictable execution, and customized logic are required.

As an example, an on-chain huge multiplayer role-playing online game or MMORPG requires frequent micro-interactions and executes 1000’s of state updates each second. A Layer 3 can batch and optimize these actions effectively. However on a general-purpose L2, such workloads will battle with community congestion, variable charges, and competitors for blockspace.

Equally, high-performance DeFi protocols like RFQ techniques, choices, and perpetual exchanges have wants that normal Layer 2 networks, in the mean time, don’t optimize for, however L3s can facilitate. These wants embrace predictable execution, versatile liquidation logic, extra management over transaction ordering, and the power to seize MEV internally.

Arbitrum Orbit, OP Stack, zkSync Hyperchains

Arbitrum Orbit permits builders to create tailor-made chains that settle to Arbitrum, inheriting its safety and tooling. The OP Stack already powers dozens of chains past Optimism itself, enabling networks like Base to emerge shortly and scale quick. zkSync Hyperchains provide a ZK-powered path for deploying app-specific rollups with robust safety ensures.

Collectively, these frameworks decrease the complexity of launching new chains. By 2026, launching a rollup could method the simplicity of deploying a wise contract, doubtlessly sparking an explosion of specialised chains constructed for DeFi, gaming, RWAs, AI brokers, high-speed buying and selling, and extra.

EVM standardization for L3 growth

As new Layer 3 networks emerge, these already adhering to EVM requirements will seemingly stay appropriate with present developer and person tooling. Which means builders can deploy Vyper or Solidity good contracts with out having to rewrite code. They’ll use present device stacks like MetaMask, Foundry, and The Graph, and depend on acquainted workflows.

Within the case of customers, it merely means the identical pockets works throughout chains, transactions really feel acquainted, and there’s no steep studying curve each time they struggle a brand new community.

By decreasing the barrier to growth and adoption, Ethereum Digital Machine standardization for Layer 3s will increase the chance that they’ll scale and combine easily into the broader Ethereum atmosphere.

Prediction #3 — Information availability wars intensify

Celestia vs EigenDA vs Ethereum’s Danksharding

By 2026, knowledge availability is more likely to turn out to be a aggressive market. Celestia is projected to realize traction as a result of its low value and modular knowledge availability, which is favored by gaming L3s. Alternatively, EigenDA’s aggressive benefit shall be its Ethereum-aligned safety ensures through restaking.

In the meantime, Ethereum’s danksharding roadmap continues so as to add extra DA capability, which in flip lowers prices whereas nonetheless retaining Ethereum’s safety. The result’s a multi-tier DA panorama wherein rollups choose DA options primarily based on their particular value, safety, and efficiency necessities moderately than counting on a single supplier.

Price variations drive L2 migration

Information availability represents 90% of L2 working prices post-EIP-4844. We count on rollups to more and more select DA layers not primarily based on ideology however economics. In different phrases:

Decrease DA value = decrease rollup charges = extra customers.

This results in the primary main migrations between DA suppliers.

DA turns into the brand new scaling bottleneck

For rollups, batching will enhance, execution will turn out to be cheaper, and charges are anticipated to lower in 2026. Which suggests there shall be extra rollups posted again to Ethereum. The result of this? Blockspaces are shortly used up as a result of Ethereum knowledge availability (DA) is finite and costly. Therefore, DA turns into the brand new bottleneck limiting the effectivity of rollup operations. This constraint will drive innovation in the direction of higher knowledge compression and validity proof schemes that reduce DA necessities.

Modular blockchains evolve into DA marketplaces

By late 2026, Information Availability now not behaves like a static service, nevertheless it operates like a cloud computing market. We’ll see variable demand-based pricing, competing price schedules, completely different latency, belief, and safety profiles. And the implication? Rollups will be capable to choose DA suppliers the identical manner builders select between AWS, Google Cloud, or Cloudflare, primarily based on value, efficiency, and reliability.

Prediction #4 — The Superchain / unified liquidity imaginative and prescient will get actual

OP Superchain goes dwell throughout a number of chains

The Superchain is Optimism’s imaginative and prescient of getting many unbiased L2 chains to function as a coordinated system. Layer 2 networks like Mode, Base, Metallic, and the OP Mainnet are constructed on the OP Stack, which implies that core parts like messaging, execution, and upgrades are standardized throughout the board.

The truth that shared requirements exist implies that these chains can coordinate governance choices, undertake frequent interoperability layers, and finally transfer in the direction of shared safety and sequencing fashions. As this coordination improves, cross-chain liquidity is predicted to deepen, and bridges turn out to be much less seen to customers.

Shared sequencing

By 2026, shared sequencing might allow atomic actions throughout a number of chains inside a single transaction circulate. A person might swap on Base, add liquidity on Optimism, and open a place on Mode, unexpectedly, with each step succeeding or reverting collectively. This brings again Ethereum’s synchronous really feel throughout the Superchain and removes the fragmentation that has slowed multi-chain DeFi.

Liquidity fragmentation reduces

The largest person expertise failure of 2024-2025 was fragmentation. Customers have ETH on Base however can’t purchase an NFT on Optimism with out bridging. With the OP Superchain and comparable shared architectures, liquidity turns into pooled throughout member chains. Market makers can deploy capital as soon as and serve a number of networks, whereas merchants faucet into unified order books regardless of which chain they’re on.

Coinbase/Base performs a serious function

Base is predicted to turn out to be essentially the most extensively used Layer 2 resolution by 2026. Its huge Coinbase-powered person base and powerful compliance profile make it the largest onboarding funnel into the Ethereum ecosystem. Base additionally beneficial properties important affect in Superchain governance and turns into the primary hub for regulated, consumer-facing functions. As hundreds of thousands of latest customers enter via Coinbase, Base’s function in shaping the broader L2 panorama grows much more dominant.

Prediction #5 — AI brokers drive enormous on-chain exercise

Autonomous brokers utilizing L2s for microtransactions

As Layer 2 charges proceed to fall, they turn out to be splendid rails for autonomous brokers. Machine-operated techniques will be capable to make fixed microtransactions, pay for APIs, buy mannequin outputs, confirm computations, and coordinate with different brokers, all with out human involvement. With low-cost, permissionless funds and verifiable execution, L2s will emerge because the default financial layer for large-scale multi-agent networks.

zk rollups turn out to be most well-liked rails for AI

AI techniques want verifiable outcomes, privacy-preserving interactions, deterministic settlement, and predictable prices. ZK rollups provide all of those advantages, making them the best atmosphere for autonomous brokers. As AI-driven functions proceed to develop, ZK-based networks will turn out to be the popular execution layer for machine-to-machine transactions and verifiable computing.

AI-to-AI funds and coordination techniques

Interplay between autonomous software program brokers, particularly within the features of on-chain transactions, market making, and buying and selling, is already underway at this time in decentralized finance techniques. These AI-to-AI interactions are more and more extending past buying and selling to incorporate participation in governance and fee for knowledge or mannequin entry, all with out requiring steady human enter. What’s at the moment driving these types of interactions? Elements equivalent to quick settlement, programmable execution, and low charges; necessities which might be clearly throughout the capabilities of Layer 2 networks.

By 2026, AI-to-AI funds and coordination techniques are anticipated to develop even additional. We will count on a rising share of on-chain exercise more likely to be dealt with by autonomous techniques appearing on behalf of customers, organizations, and protocols.

Early examples: Autonolas, Fetch.ai, Ritual

Initiatives like Autonolas, Fetch.ai, Grass, and Ritual symbolize early constructing blocks for machine-to-machine coordination on the blockchain. As an example, Autonolas or Olas is a decentralized platform that facilitates the constructing, deployment and administration of self-acting software program entities, in any other case referred to as autonomous brokers, for dApps, DAOs and off-chain companies.

Fetch.ai additionally builds networks of autonomous financial brokers able to negotiating, transacting and optimizing outcomes throughout markets like finance, provide chain and vitality. Ritual, in the meantime, focuses on bringing verifiable AI inference on-chain, such that good contracts are in a position to belief the output of synthetic intelligence fashions with out the necessity for off-chain processes.

Whereas nonetheless evolving, these techniques collectively spotlight a rising development, which is that blockchain is more and more turning into a coordination and settlement layer for AI techniques – extra of which shall be seen in 2026.

Prediction #6 — Shopper L2s explode

Farcaster frames + Base ecosystem

Farcaster frames are interactive parts embedded in Farcaster posts. Farcaster itself is a decentralized social community. And Base? That’s a number one consumer-focused Layer 2 community. So, what’s the hyperlink?

Farcaster frames are in a position to host a wide range of mini-applications like quizzes, polls, and dwell updates for video games and merchandise. Aside from these, Frames additionally options the power to combine Web3 functionalities straight in social feeds, such that customers can mint NFTs, tip creators, test airdrops, and make crypto funds, all throughout the identical UI.

For this mannequin to scale, the underlying community must be low-cost, quick, and dependable. That’s the place Base is available in. It makes the in-feed actions on Farcaster really feel immediate and seamless. Customers can easily transition between social actions and on-chain transactions with out having to interface with the complexities of the blockchain.

The market can anticipate the emergence of extra of this kind of integration that blurs the strains between monetary exercise and social interplay in 2026.

On-chain video games utilizing appchains/L3s

Video games constructed absolutely on-chain require extra throughput than what general-purpose Layer-2s at the moment provide. Parts that demand real-time processing, equivalent to game-state updates, participant actions, and asset switch, typically put strain on shared networks. Software-specific L3s repair this by giving every sport its personal devoted blockspace, whereas permitting builders to customise execution and even subsidize participant charges.

In 2026, on-chain video games are anticipated to run on their very own appchains/L3s, constructed particularly for high-speed, deeply interactive gameplay.

L2s with near-zero charges appeal to cellular customers

Charges on Layer 2 are anticipated to method zero in 2026. What does this imply for cellular customers? Advanced on-chain actions turn out to be reasonably priced, additional driving L2s towards turning into the default platform for world cellular adoption. With advances in compression, proof techniques, and sequencing, social interactions, tipping, loyalty rewards, and micro-payments will turn out to be on a regular basis on-chain behaviors.

UX enhancements for non-crypto audiences

The aim stays to get customers to work together with L2 apps with out even understanding what a seed phrase or fuel charges imply. Enhancements in account abstraction, embedded wallets, and fiat on-ramps in 2026 will make the person expertise with Layer 2 apps easier and extra intuitive, akin to a typical Web2 app, with seamless logins and immediate actions.

Prediction #7 — Ethereum turns into a settlement layer, not a person layer

Rollup-centric roadmap absolutely realized

If Vitalik Buterin’s rollup-centric imaginative and prescient approaches full-scale actualization in 2026, the Ethereum mainnet will proceed to stay the bottom layer for safety, DA, and settlement, whereas day-to-day person exercise occurs on Layer 2 networks. This clear separation lets every layer function extra effectively. The Ethereum mainnet serves as a settlement layer, whereas L2s, then again, ship a quick and low-cost expertise.

99% of person exercise strikes to L2s

Virtually all on a regular basis actions are anticipated to shift to Layer 2 networks as they proceed to outpace the Ethereum mainnet when it comes to transactions, customers, and developer deployments. This development is already seen at this time and is accelerating shortly. Utilizing Ethereum L1 straight turns into one thing reserved for giant settlements, essential governance choices, or main protocol upgrades.

That doesn’t imply Ethereum is failing. In truth, it means the other. L1 lastly evolves into the safe basis of the ecosystem, very like the web’s base protocols that nobody interacts with straight.

ETH used as fuel through EIP-4844 integration

At the same time as person actions are predicted to shift fully to Layer 2s, this doesn’t exchange the function of the Ethereum mainnet because the underlying infrastructure. Layer 2s nonetheless depend on Ethereum for safety and DA. In addition they submit transaction knowledge again to Ethereum for settlement, and pay for execution in ETH.

Likewise, validators and sequencers nonetheless maintain ETH to pay DA charges, submit batches, and decide on L1. It doesn’t matter whether or not a rollup abstracts fuel charges, makes use of stablecoins, or its personal tokens; at its core, it nonetheless depends on ETH to function. This continues to gas the demand for ETH on the infrastructure degree, making it the “reserve asset” of Ethereum’s scaling stack.

Establishments decide on Ethereum, transact on L2s

An method to count on shall be monetary establishments adopting a break up mannequin when utilizing Ethereum. What does this imply? In easy phrases, on daily basis operations equivalent to inner transfers, small funds, and comparable actions that will be too sluggish or costly for Layer 1s transfer to Layer 2s. On the opposite aspect, last settlement, steadiness reconciliation, custody, and comparable high-value actions stay on Ethereum, the place finality, decentralization, and safety are strongest.

This provides establishments what they need, which is the safety of Layer 1s, the execution of Layer 2s, and predictable compliance frameworks. The break up between deciding on Ethereum and working on L2s will turn out to be the usual structure for institutional blockchain use.

Prediction #8 — Layer 2 income fashions evolve

Sequencer earnings develop

The function of sequencers is to order, bundle, and be sure that transactions are submitted to Layer 2 networks. In different phrases, L2 transactions cross via sequencers, which suggests, by nature, they sit on the middle of MEV seize and price assortment. Therefore, as Layer 2 adoption accelerates and month-to-month transaction volumes develop exponentially, sequencers are positioned to develop revenue.

MEV markets mature

Maximal Extractable Worth or MEV is the extra worth that may be captured by controlling the inclusion, ordering, and exclusion of transactions in a block. That is an space that can see extra construction to it in 2026.

Naturally, new transaction ordering mechanisms and quicker block instances will end in extra MEV alternatives, albeit requiring coordination and democratization, which platforms like Flashbots already do.

Stakeholders can count on an open, clear and aggressive transaction ordering market pushed by cross chain MEV auctions and shared sequencers. A mature MEV market will be sure that worth extraction aligns effectively with protocols and customers.

Moreover, the openness, transparency, and democratization of the market will result in advantages equivalent to fairer charges and, the place relevant, person rebates.

Shared income with builders

Optimism’s retroactive public items funding mannequin is predicted to unfold throughout the L2 ecosystem. Extra networks are starting to direct a portion of sequencer income again to builders, rewarding groups primarily based on the influence of their work. This ensures regular funding for open-source infrastructure, developer instruments, and high-value group initiatives.

By 2026, a number of L2s are predicted to undertake formal revenue-sharing techniques that assist L3 builders, service suppliers, and main protocol groups, strengthening the whole ecosystem.

L2 tokens: shift from “governance” to actual cashflow belongings

By design, most Layer 2 tokens had been supposed as governance tokens used to decentralize decision-making. L2 tokens are, nevertheless, anticipated to do extra than simply be governance instruments and start capturing actual financial worth. Immediately, rollups already generate income from DA prices, sequencing charges, and MEV, tying native L2 tokens to actual money circulate.

By 2026, extra networks will introduce revenue-sharing fashions, sequencer revenue distribution, and yield tied to precise community utilization. Governance will nonetheless matter, little question, however money circulate shall be a big a part of what provides L2 tokens long-term worth.

Prediction #9 — L2 interoperability turns into secure and native

Belief-minimized bridges

One of many drawbacks of early cross-chain bridges that creates a serious safety concern is their reliance on trusted validators or multisigs. Which means customers belief a bunch of operators to verify transactions. And if these events are compromised or act maliciously, the transaction may very well be in danger.

Belief-minimized ZK bridges are shifting the narrative, with options like Succinct’s Telepathy already selling L2 interoperability by utilising validity proofs to cryptographically confirm state adjustments throughout chains with out the necessity for trusted intermediaries. This method is predicted to turn out to be mainstream as it should make bridging quicker, permissionless, dependable, and safer.

Cross-chain intents

Intent-based techniques like Anoma and Radius are anticipated to take away the complexity of selecting chains or dealing with bridges. As an alternative of telling the community easy methods to execute a transaction, customers merely state what they need, equivalent to swapping tokens at the most effective value, shifting liquidity to the highest-yield chain, or getting a certain quantity of USDC on Arbitrum. Solver networks then work out the optimum cross-chain route and execute it behind the scenes.

Shared blockspace

To additional drive the aim of L2 interoperability, particular person L2s like Arbitrum, OP, and so forth., will now not order transactions, however shared sequencers will coordinate and finalize the method throughout a number of L2s concurrently and instantaneously.

On the person aspect, wallets show a single mixed steadiness and unified transaction historical past, whereas apps mechanically route transactions via essentially the most appropriate chain. In follow, customers don’t get to work together with the complexities; every little thing occurs seamlessly within the background.

Prediction #10 — Regulation pushes U.S. builders towards L2s

Base emerges because the compliant L2 for U.S. groups

Base will emerge as the popular L2 for US groups as a result of robust regulatory standing and compliance-driven nature of Coinbase, its guardian infrastructure. The hyperlink between Coinbase and Base implies that the latter enjoys transaction monitoring, straightforward onboarding, built-in Know Your Buyer (KYC) and AML assist, and most significantly, a clearly spelled out authorized and operational framework. These are the kind of options suited to fintech integrations, enterprise deployments, and client functions.

Stablecoin funds circulate into L2s

As regulatory readability continues to unfold for the already thriving stablecoins ecosystem, when it comes to what could be issued and the way they can be utilized, fee firms achieve confidence to transition on-chain, particularly to Ethereum L2s. However why Layer 2 networks? L2s turn out to be a sexy possibility due to their Ethereum-grade safety, near-instant finality, and low charges.

These are a mix of options that attraction to groups dealing with high-volume funds, cross-border transfers, and payroll. On a regular basis funds are usually not neglected. Compliance-driven stablecoins like USDC and PYUSD are predicted to maneuver throughout L2s within the background, finishing transactions price billions of {dollars} month-to-month, whereas wallets summary the complexity of the method (bridges, chain choice, and fuel charges).

What might sluggish Layer 2 adoption?

Safety assumptions round L3s

Layer 3s depend upon the safety structure of the Layer 2s they’re constructed on. Likewise, Layer 2s depend on the safety of the Ethereum (L1) mainnet. The cascading belief mannequin might create a serious safety danger. Ought to a serious L2 fail happen, the dependent L3s are equally affected.

Sequencer centralization

Most Layer 2 scaling options nonetheless use centralized sequencers run by their core groups. With centralization comes censorship dangers, a single level of failure, and publicity to regulatory strain. If significant progress towards sequencer decentralization doesn’t occur by 2026, it might weaken the core worth proposition of L2s and restrict their long-term belief and resilience.

DA layer failures or outages

Information availability layers be sure that rollups make transaction knowledge obtainable at an inexpensive value. To attain this, some DA layers depend on a distinct or, in some circumstances, weaker safety structure than Ethereum’s. This introduces a reliability danger, such that if a less expensive DA experiences a community outage or consensus failure, the dependent rollups face knowledge fragmentation and eventual state inconsistency.

Liquidity fragmentation returning

5 L2s launch at this time, and two L3s launch a few days after. Whereas this in itself gives customers with selection, it’s a precursor to liquidity fragmentation. As an alternative of funds being concentrated in a single place, they’re unfold throughout a number of networks, making buying and selling much less environment friendly and rising borrowing prices. Even with shared sequencing and Superchain-style coordination, incentives can nonetheless pull capital in numerous instructions, making liquidity fragmentation an ongoing danger.

U.S. regulatory ambiguity

Crypto regulation within the US is usually thought to be ambiguous. Why? A number of state regulators and businesses at all times have one thing to say, from the SEC to the CFTC, Treasury, and FinCEN. Additionally, the principles round crypto basically, Layer 2 tokens, and stablecoins stay unclear.

For builders and enterprises, enforcement dangers stay tough to evaluate, creating operational and authorized uncertainty. The result? Adoption slows down, builders are compelled to adapt through a compliance-first design, limit options within the US, or shift efforts towards different jurisdictions with clearer regulatory frameworks.

What does 2026 appear like for Ethereum scaling?

A multi-L2 world dominated by Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync

Within the coming months, the Ethereum L2 ecosystem is predicted to expertise much less fragmentation and consolidate round a couple of dominant gamers. First could be Base, an L2 that has positioned itself strategically because the hub for consumer-focused functions.

Base’s integration with Coinbase and its a whole lot of hundreds of thousands of customers simplifies crypto onboarding for a non-crypto viewers, ensures fiat entry, and regulatory oversight. That is enticing to mainstream functions.

Arbitrum will seemingly proceed to carry its base as the house of DeFi and gaming as a result of its deep liquidity, stable developer group, and mature tooling. It’s also famend for its complicated monetary functions and high-throughput use circumstances.

Optimism’s Superchain and enterprise rollups are additionally anticipated to thrive, turning into the spine for interoperable software ecosystems. The fourth, zkSync, which anchors ZK-based Layer 2s and Layer 3s, will take the lead in high-value transactions, institutional use circumstances, and privacy-sensitive functions.

Ethereum as a world settlement, DA + rollups as execution

Ethereum’s function evolves into a world settlement and knowledge availability layer, securing billions of transactions taking place on L2s. Direct person exercise on the mainnet turns into minimal, whereas rollups deal with day-to-day actions, equivalent to client apps, buying and selling, funds, gaming, and AI interactions. This structure delivers huge scale whereas protecting Ethereum’s core safety and decentralization intact.

Hundreds of thousands of each day energetic customers throughout L2s

Taking a cue from the expansion noticed in person and each day transactions as of 2025, the numbers are anticipated to surpass present ranges by 2026. Ecosystems like Base and Arbitrum will course of hundreds of thousands of transactions each day, with customers onboarded from around the globe: DeFi merchants in Asia, avid gamers in Europe, fee customers in Latin America, and world social media individuals.

Rollups turn out to be the brand new app shops

Rollups will evolve from simply being a device to chop down charges and scale Ethereum right into a holistic platform that hosts ecosystems of functions, as is the case with at this time’s app shops.

Past simply bundling transactions off-chain and posting them again to Layer 1, rollups will host decentralized functions, assist customers uncover them, present built-in instruments and liquidity, and deal with execution within the background.

Moreover, as L3 frameworks develop on prime of L2 rollups, these networks start to really feel much less like a single-purpose scaling layer and extra like a full software ecosystem the place distribution, monetization, and execution are coordinated on the platform degree.