XRP on exchanges hits 8 year low, but historical data exposes a brutal flaw in the popular “moon” narrative
Glassnode information exhibits that XRP’s change balances hit their lowest stage since 2018 in late December, sparking the standard wave of accumulation section hypothesis and “tight provide = moon” commentary.
Whereas the eight-year low encompasses all the change ecosystem, CryptoQuant information for Binance affords a current window into whether or not these troughs really precede rallies.
Binance’s XRP reserves dropped to roughly 2.6 billion by mid-December 2025, matching the July 2024 low, after peaking above 3.5 billion in early September.
The query is not whether or not provide thinned, however whether or not prior episodes of equally low Binance reserves preceded medium-term outperformance, or whether or not the sample is simply noise dressed up as sign.
First drawdown into the July 2024 low
After an early-year build-up from roughly 2.6 billion to simply over 3.0 billion XRP, Binance reserves rolled over round late March and floor decrease into early July, bottoming close to 2.7 billion.
In accordance with the CryptoQuant chart, XRP traded roughly between $0.48 and $0.71 throughout the second quarter of 2024, averaging $0.56.
Via Could, it drifted decrease into the low-to-mid $0.50s. By late June, it hugged simply above $0.50, with the native trough barely beneath that, round $0.48.
The explosive transfer from sub-$1 costs in October to roughly $2 by November and over $3 in January 2025 occurred months later, as soon as reserves had already climbed again above 3 billion.
Month-to-month closes jumped from about $0.51 in October 2024 to $1.94 in November, $2.08 in December, and $3.04 in January 2025.
The July 2024 low in reserves coincided with depressed value, however the large rally arrived solely after an extended lag and after change balances had re-expanded, not in the mean time of tightest provide.
Put up-spike cooling with falling reserves
After the worth spike within the fourth quarter of 2024, reserves on Binance sat above 3.2 billion XRP in October and November 2024, then trended down into early 2025, reaching roughly 2.8 billion by March.
That second clear tightening episode got here from elevated ranges somewhat than from a multi-year low. Value habits was simple: it cooled off.
XRP closed round $2.08 in December 2024, peaked close to $3.04 in January 2025, then slipped again to roughly $2.09 between February and March, buying and selling within the low-$2s by spring.
As Binance reserves quietly bled decrease from post-rally highs, XRP largely misplaced altitude somewhat than breaking into a brand new leg increased. Tightening right here appeared like profit-taking and rotation into self-custody whereas the worth corrected.
From September spike to multi-year lows
Probably the most related tightening is the present one.
On Sept. 1, XRP reserves throughout main exchanges spiked higher by about 1.2 billion tokens in a single day. Binance’s share jumped from roughly 2.93 billion to three.54 billion XRP.
From October onward, the CryptoQuant chart exhibits that XRP provide reversed route. Binance reserves slid from about 3 billion in early October to roughly 2.7 billion by late November, then to round 2.6 billion by mid-December, the bottom stage since July 2024.
Over that very same window, XRP month-to-month closes drifted down from about $2.85 in September to $2.51 in October, $2.16 in November, and $2.03 in December.
That is roughly a 30% value drawdown whereas provide on Binance was tightening. Thus far, this appears to be like rather more like “tight provide plus weak tape” than a traditional supply-squeeze rally.
The market has shifted cash off Binance into ETFs and self-custody, however the spot value has continued to bleed decrease into the $1.80-$2.00 vary.
What the sample exhibits and why it could be totally different this time
Throughout the 2024-2025 window on the CryptoQuant chart, there are actually solely two true trough bands in Binance reserves at or close to as we speak’s ranges: July 2024, round 2.7 billion XRP, and the present zone, round 2.6-2.7 billion.
In between, reserves fell a few occasions from increased ranges, however these have been drawdowns from above 3 billion somewhat than recent lows.
Within the second quarter of 2024, tightening into the July low first coincided with underperformance, adopted by a giant rally months later, after balances had risen once more.
That is an ambiguous bullish precedent at finest. In early 2025 and once more lately, the sample is easier: reserves development down, and costs development down with them. Tight provide has not but become an apparent squeeze-style upside within the 30 to 90-day window.
Thus far, it is extra a narrative of decreased sell-side liquidity throughout a correction than a clear purchase sign.
The July 2024 trough occurred earlier than spot XRP ETFs existed.
The present drawdown happens in an surroundings the place ETFs have attracted over $1 billion in net inflows, with property underneath administration close to $1.25 billion and nil outflow days recorded by late 2025.
These cash reside in custodial wallets somewhat than on buying and selling venues, so some change shortage displays structural demand and plumbing, reminiscent of ETF mechanics shifting cash off centralized order books, somewhat than pure accumulation by conviction patrons.
Whale habits provides ambiguity. Provide distribution information exhibits large swings in massive XRP holder cohorts by 2025, together with intervals the place whales dumped lots of of tens of millions of tokens whilst ETFs purchased and change balances fell.
Within the 2024-2025 Binance chart, each sustained tightening episode is adopted by both sideways-to-lower costs or a really delayed rally. The one actual bullish trough case in July 2024 required traders to sit down by months of chop and a rebuild in change balances earlier than the massive transfer.
That makes as we speak’s low-reserve studying attention-grabbing, however removed from a assured springboard.
Low change provide has been a mandatory however inadequate situation for XRP’s upside, and the information do not help the hopium narrative that tight provide mechanically results in rallies.
What they do present is that when the following catalyst hits, and it may be regulatory readability, institutional adoption, or a shift in macro sentiment, there might be much less provide accessible on exchanges to soak up demand. Whether or not that catalyst materializes in 30, 90, or 180 days stays unsure.
