This Bitcoin Pattern Could Repeat Itself, But The Bottom Could Lie Below $50,000
Bitcoin is exhibiting a month-to-month momentum sign that has appeared close to a number of main cycle lows, which raises the likelihood that the present correction is getting into its closing stage.
The setup is predicated on the month-to-month logarithmic MACD histogram, the place earlier Bitcoin bottoms shaped solely when the crimson bars started fading for no less than two straight months. The identical sign might now be forming once more, however there’s one essential catch.
Bitcoin MACD Repeating Backside Sample
The technical outlook in query is predicated on the month-to-month candlestick timeframe chart, however Could has not closed but, and Bitcoin remains to be buying and selling in a fragile zone under $76,000 after failing to carry above the $80,000 area, which it broke above earlier within the month.
Technical analysis finished by crypto analyst Washigorira focuses on a easy however traditionally important characteristic that entails two consecutive lighter crimson bars on Bitcoin’s month-to-month logarithmic MACD histogram. In previous cycles, the darker crimson histogram bars confirmed increasing bearish momentum, whereas the lighter crimson bars confirmed that the draw back stress was starting to weaken.
This similar sample appeared round previous Bitcoin bottoming phases. The Bitcoin month-to-month candlestick chart, proven under, factors to related month-to-month MACD transitions in 2012, the 2015 bear market backside, the 2019 cycle reset, and the late 2022 to early 2023 restoration part. In every case, Bitcoin didn’t instantly explode larger the second the primary lighter crimson bar appeared, however the sign confirmed that sellers have been dropping management on the month-to-month timeframe.
The Could Shut Is The Actual Sign
The identical configuration now appears to be forming once more. Bitcoin’s month-to-month MACD histogram turned deep crimson in September 2025, however April 2026 delivered the primary lighter crimson bar since that flip, indicating that bearish momentum had began to ease.
Could is in progress and has not but printed its closing studying. If the month closes with a second consecutive lighter bar, the sample may have repeated once more, and Bitcoin’s backside might already be in. “If historical past rhymes, the worst of the draw back might already be behind us,” WashiGorira noted.
Then again, a weak shut that creates a deep crimson histogram once more would delay the sign and preserve the bear case alive. Bitcoin’s short-term worth motion is caught between reduction and weak spot, and it’s at present unclear how Could will shut. The cryptocurrency has held above the decrease panic ranges at $74,000 for now, however it has struggled to reclaim the $80,000 zone in Could.
Bitcoin is at present combating outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs and low spot demand on crypto exchanges. None of this essentially breaks the technical histogram sample WashiGorira is monitoring.
The bearish studying is that the sample may nonetheless depart room for one closing crash earlier than a backside is confirmed. Some technical analysts have warned that the Bitcoin worth may nonetheless break under $50,000.
Featured picture from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
