Prediction markets lift Robinhood as crypto revenue slumps
Coinbase reported Oct. 29 that its prediction markets enterprise had surpassed $200 million in annualized web income, including one other earnings stream as crypto buying and selling platforms search development past digital asset transactions.
The disclosure adopted Robinhood’s third-quarter outcomes, wherein occasion contracts generated $173 million in opposition to $120 million from cryptocurrencies. Robinhood’s crypto income fell 55% from a 12 months earlier, giving its occasion enterprise an instantaneous monetary function.
The earnings present prediction markets turning into a supply of platform income, however they characterize a considerable quarterly contribution at Robinhood, a rising annualized measure at Coinbase, and a a lot smaller enterprise in Gemini’s earlier outcomes.
The income image throughout platforms
Robinhood earned $104 million from occasion contracts within the first quarter, $156 million within the second and $173 million within the third, in response to its earnings materials and latest results.
These quarters sum to $433 million in income for the primary 9 months of 2026, and quarterly income rose about 66% from the primary to the third quarter. Third-quarter event-contract income accounted for about 12.1% of Robinhood’s $1,424 million in whole web income.
The crossover with crypto had already occurred within the second quarter, when occasion contracts introduced in $156 million and cryptocurrency transactions generated $100 million.
Coinbase’s earnings presentation defines its prediction-market milestone as quarterly annualized web income for the newest qualifying quarter.
The corporate additionally reported 82% compound quarterly development in prediction-market income over the product’s working historical past. Each day merchants elevated greater than 60% quarter over quarter, whereas prediction customers additionally generated incremental spot buying and selling quantity.
Chief Monetary Officer Alesia Haas mentioned the extra income was much less correlated with crypto volatility and helped make Coinbase extra resilient throughout market cycles.
Gemini’s second-quarter filing reported $524,000 in prediction-market income for the three months ended June 30, about 1.2% of whole income of $45 million.
First-half prediction income of $968,000 implies a first-quarter contribution of $444,000, representing roughly 18% quarterly development.
Gemini earns transaction charges when prediction trades execute, but its broader diversification within the second quarter got here principally from providers: services revenue grew 149% year over year, whereas change income fell 38%. Predictions have been nonetheless a small a part of that monetary image.
Enlargement past the earnings stories
Different venues expanded their prediction choices earlier in 2026, though the cited bulletins didn’t disclose income contributions.
Crypto.com launched its OG prediction-market platform on Feb. 3. CEO Kris Marszalek cited 40-fold weekly development in its prediction-market enterprise over six months, with out specifying the metric or reporting income.
Bybit Prediction launched within Bybit Alpha on June 10, initially centered on soccer. Phemex’s April 23 announcement recognized an April 22 launch powered by Polymarket and mentioned its first markets have been dwell.
OKX’s Outcomes League marketing campaign, printed in August, used free, nonmonetary factors with no real funds involved.
Robinhood warned that enforcement actions, litigation or adjustments in legislation may stop it from persevering with to supply occasion contracts.
The following check is whether or not these companies ship recurring income at a scale that adjustments every platform’s dependence on crypto buying and selling.
