FOMC countdown – Here’s why Bitcoin bulls might need to watch out
Key Takeaways
Might the FOMC change the sport?
Dovish vibes look priced in, and macro flows into ETFs, treasuries, and AI are nonetheless capping Bitcoin.
Why is Bitcoin lagging tech and alts?
As a result of threat capital is rotating into equities and altcoins, with Nasdaq at ATH and SOL tripling BTC’s ROI.
The U.S. inventory market is buzzing.
The S&P500 index has surged by practically 32% off its April low. In the meantime, the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied by 50% to hit a brand new all-time excessive. Quite the opposite, Bitcoin’s [BTC] value dropped by 38% on the worth charts.
As anticipated, this divergence is now displaying up on-chain. The truth is, the BTC–Nasdaq correlation flipped adverse to -0.14 at press time – Marking its lowest stage since September 2024. Merely put, because of this Bitcoin could also be beginning to lag tech.
Supply: CryptoQuant
In keeping with AMBCrypto, such a decoupling is an indication of threat capital rotating into equities. With the FOMC lower than 48 hours out and 96% odds of a 400–425 bps minimize, merchants could also be clearly front-running a bullish setup in U.S shares.
On the weekly, the Nasdaq blasted to an ATH, whereas BTC appeared to be caught 7% under its $124k ATH. As David Hernandez from 21Shares informed AMBCrypto, it’s a transparent sign that risk-seeking traders are trying past Bitcoin.
“With macro uncertainty earlier than subsequent week principally out of the best way, all eyes are on Chair Powell and the Fed, the place a fee minimize and dovish ahead steerage may catapult Bitcoin again to $118K-$120K. The speed minimize opens the door for risk-seeking traders to look past Bitcoin too – to tokens like Solana and XRP, whose ETFs are extremely anticipated to debut this fall.”
Bitcoin faces headwinds from different asset flows
Altcoins are clearly giving Bitcoin a run for its cash this cycle.
On 8 September, TOTAL2 (ex-BTC market cap) topped $1.74 trillion, grabbing 45.8% of the market share. What’s extra, the Altcoin Season Index ripped to 80 – Its highest stage for the reason that election run.
Supporting this transfer, the SOL/BTC ratio jumped by 10.5% in a month, with Solana [SOL] spiking by practically 3x vs BTC’s 6% ROI. Including firepower, 16 treasuries now maintain 10.29 million SOL, protecting capital locked in alt momentum.
Supply: TradingView (SOL/BTC)
Briefly, Bitcoin’s post-FOMC dovish vibes may be getting forward of themselves.
The cycle’s shifted, with risk-assets front-running flows and protecting BTC in verify. ETFs, treasuries, and AI hype are a number of the macro performs sucking up capital, one thing even David Hernandez from 21Shares flagged.
“Momentum within the broader digital asset market has additionally picked up. Ethereum and Solana have seen sizeable features just lately, largely pushed by a wave of bulletins from Digital Asset Treasury Firms (“DATcos”) planning to carry main cryptocurrencies on their stability sheets – a improvement reviving institutional curiosity.”
