Why Strategy keeps buying Bitcoin at local peaks

Technique (previously MicroStrategy) has earned a repute for making its weekly Bitcoin acquisitions close to the native prime in current weeks.

On Nov. 10, CryptoQuant analyst JA Marturn noted that the agency’s most up-to-date acquisition disclosure from Michael Saylor adopted the identical script.

In keeping with an SEC filing, Technique introduced that it had acquired 487 BTC between Nov. 3 and Nov. 9 for $49.9 million at a median worth of $102,557 per coin.

Whereas the flagship asset spent a lot of the previous week buying and selling sideways, Bitcoin had reached a excessive of above $106,000 on Nov. 3 earlier than sliding greater than 9% to commerce briefly under $100,000. It continues to battle with the $106,400 support-turned-resistance and the $100,000 native ground.

Nonetheless, Saylor’s agency was unable to purchase on the market backside. As a substitute, the purchases arrived at one of many highest costs the highest asset traded final week.

That is in step with the agency’s earlier purchases, which coincided with short-term peaks, and raises the query of why the agency continues to “purchase the highest.”

Whereas the consistency of this visible sample fuels an impression of mistimed execution, it tells solely a part of the story.

Why Technique tends to purchase into BTC energy

Technique’s purchases are likely to cluster round moments of elevated liquidity for causes unrelated to market enthusiasm.

The agency’s company treasuries deploy capital at particular factors, reminiscent of after fairness gross sales, convertible issuances, or inside liquidity occasions.

These home windows hardly ever align with discounted market situations. As a substitute, they usually open during times when Bitcoin is buying and selling with deeper order books and decrease execution danger.

Market analysts have famous that this structural actuality explains why Technique’s entries usually align with native highs. Giant company orders are executed when market depth is strongest, which generally corresponds with rallies reasonably than intervals of drawdown.

In consequence, acquisition filings can create an optical phantasm of systematically shopping for at peaks, even when the timing is ready by liquidity availability and inside controls reasonably than sentiment.

For Technique, the marginal worth of a given tranche is secondary.

Saylor has constantly framed Bitcoin as a long-duration financial instrument, and the agency’s operations comply with that doctrine. The target is regular publicity, not precision timing.

So, the agency’s execution home windows are outlined by company processes, and consistency of accumulation is prioritized over opportunistic entry.

Lengthy-term efficiency vs. structural dangers

Over an extended horizon, criticisms of Technique’s timing lose some power.

Since Technique started shopping for Bitcoin in 2020, its treasury has grown into some of the worthwhile company asset allocations in fashionable historical past.

The corporate now holds 641,692 BTC, valued at roughly $68 billion, which was bought at a median worth of $106,000, leading to a complete value foundation of $67.5 billion. At present costs, that place implies roughly $20.5 billion in paper features.

Much more placing, Technique has generated over $12 billion in Bitcoin features in YTD 2025, regardless of slowing its tempo of accumulation to some hundred cash in current weeks.

That is the paradox on the coronary heart of the Saylor technique: the entries look poor, however the outcomes are distinctive. It exhibits a company dollar-cost averaging on a structural timeline.

Brief-term volatility amplifies the impression that Technique buys tops; the multi-cycle actuality exhibits that these “tops” usually turn out to be deeply worthwhile entries over time.

A broader comparability emphasizes the purpose. Over the previous yr, Technique’s fairness (MSTR) has proven 87% volatility, sharply greater than Bitcoin’s 44%, and extra unstable than the corporate’s different digital-asset merchandise.

But regardless of this depth, the cumulative publicity to Bitcoin has turned that volatility into uneven upside.

Nonetheless, the sturdy returns don’t immunize the corporate from structural vulnerabilities. Barchart data exhibits {that a} $10,000 funding in MSTR in the course of the dot-com peak could be price $7,207 immediately, illustrating 20 years of volatility impartial of the Bitcoin technique.

Furthermore, some analysts argue that Technique’s dependence on capital markets introduces materials dangers if the cryptocurrency enters a multi-year downturn.

These considerations have intensified as the corporate’s steadiness sheet has developed.

Chris Millas, an advisor at Mellius Bitcoin, Brazil’s first Bitcoin treasury agency, noted that over the last bear market, the agency carried no interest-bearing debt and had years earlier than its earliest bond maturities. So, its fairness volatility was painful however had a restricted operational influence.

Nonetheless, this cycle is completely different. Technique now holds interest-bearing obligations that have to be serviced no matter market situations.

Millas argued {that a} extreme drop in MSTR’s share worth, which is traditionally believable given the inventory’s drawdowns of 70–80% in prior cycles, would restrict the corporate’s flexibility and improve the chance of dilutive capital issuances.

In keeping with him, that dilution, in flip, might stress the inventory additional, making a suggestions loop that magnifies draw back danger.

Certainly, Technique faces roughly $689 million in curiosity funds due in 2026. With out new capital, the corporate can’t meet that obligation.

Furthermore, current fundraises spotlight how financing situations have shifted, with preferred-share choices pricing yields round 10.5%, above the preliminary steerage of close to 10%. The widening unfold alerts that capital is turning into costlier, complicating the economics of debt-funded Bitcoin accumulation.

Resulting from this, skeptics have identified that the mannequin resembles a leveraged carry commerce with restricted margin for error. Actually, some have labeled the method “Ponzi-like”, whereas arguing that the agency’s liabilities are rising sooner than working earnings.

In keeping with them, this leaves Technique depending on both rising Bitcoin costs or continued investor urge for food for high-yield devices.

Sign energy and narrative technique

Even with these dangers, Technique’s purchases proceed to exert outsized narrative affect. The corporate recordsdata frequent and clear disclosures, and its visibility permits the acquisitions to perform as a type of market signaling.

So, Technique’s shopping for into energy reinforces the message that Bitcoin is a long-term financial asset reasonably than a timing-sensitive commerce.

Furthermore, as a number of of Technique’s higher-price filings in current weeks have coincided with intervals of market hesitation, the filings contribute to stabilizing sentiment by demonstrating regular institutional demand.

This has allowed Technique to successfully place itself because the market’s most constant large-scale purchaser, and its disclosures serve each operational and symbolic functions.

This twin position explains why Saylor continues to build up by way of short-term peaks.

For Technique, the acquisition worth of any given week is secondary to the multi-year trajectory of each Bitcoin and the corporate’s id as its largest company holder.

The optics could draw criticism, particularly during times of elevated volatility. Nonetheless, the framework guiding the purchases stays constant: Technique will not be positioning for the subsequent quarter, however for the subsequent decade.