Here’s When the Stock Market Could Bottom Out, According to Fidelity Global Macro Analyst Jurrien Timmer

Constancy’s director of world macro, Jurrien Timmer, is updating his outlook on markets following an across-the-board correction in equities.

In a submit on the social media platform X, Timmer shares together with his 194,000 followers a chart depicting a mean of the S&P 500’s returns through the particular years of presidential phrases.

Timmer’s chart means that the S&P 500 is kind of following the historic common of earlier presidential cycles and that its present drawdown might conclude someplace round July of this 12 months.

“Whereas I wouldn’t put an excessive amount of weight on this indicator, the iteration of the Presidential cycle during which the mid-term 12 months (2022) is down, continues to play out properly. We are actually in ‘12 months 5’ (if that makes any sense), and that 12 months has been down on common for the primary six months. It suggests a modest however multi-month corrective interval.”

Zooming in, Timmer shares a chart monitoring 26 completely different corrections within the S&P 500 all the best way again to 1906. each correction, Timmer says the present market dip appears harking back to 2018, implying that the S&P 500 might backside out across the 4,900 stage.

“Final week’s reprieve from the tape bombs (which have change into such a function in 2025) allowed the markets to catch their breath. For now, we stay in 10% correction territory whereas we wonder if the following 10% will likely be up or down.

The chart beneath exhibits all corrections and bear markets since 1900. This one feels a bit like late 2018, which was a 20% correction purely pushed by a number of compression.”

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