Is Russia’s return to the dollar a hidden bullish signal for Bitcoin?

Geopolitics continues to weigh on danger belongings. This week alone, roughly $120 billion has been wiped from the market, pushing the TOTAL index again towards pre-election ranges as capital retains rotating out.

Over the identical stretch, gold (XAU) pushed again, reinforcing the concept buyers are nonetheless leaning on the metallic as a hedge. That mentioned, one notable transfer stood out, with XAU closing down 3.19% on the twelfth of February.

On the similar time, Bitcoin [BTC] slipped 1.2%, whereas the S&P500 (SPX) dropped 1.57%, marking its sharpest single-day sell-off in practically a month. General, the session performed out like one other “market-wide” flush.

Supply: TradingView

Naturally, the query arises: What triggered the transfer? A report from Bloomberg stirred recent debate amongst analysts, pointing to Russia shifting again towards U.S. greenback utilization as a part of a broader financial partnership.

From a technical standpoint, the shift would sign a return to the greenback as a settlement software, probably giving the DXY a recent tailwind after greater than a yr of draw back stress that dragged it again towards 2022 ranges.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s dip following the information suggests the market isn’t treating this as bullish. Technically, a stronger greenback makes bonds a extra compelling high-yield different, weakening BTC’s risk-reward enchantment.

That mentioned, latest cycles present {that a} falling greenback hasn’t reliably pushed Bitcoin greater. This raises the important thing query: Might a “sentiment” shift tied to a strengthening U.S. greenback truly flip bullish for danger belongings?

Is sentiment extra essential than construction for Bitcoin?

The market nonetheless isn’t satisfied Bitcoin has discovered a backside. 

A number of indicators clarify the hesitation. Bitcoin ETFs, for example, logged one other $276 million in outflows after three straight days of inflows, exhibiting that institutional demand stays fragile.

Including to the warning, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) has but to flip bullish since peaking forward of October’s crash. On this backdrop, calling a BTC backside appears to be like untimely, with sentiment nonetheless removed from absolutely reset.

Supply: CryptoQuant

Accumulation, nevertheless, stays lively. Heavyweights like Binance and Technique (MSTR), which have acquired over 42k BTC thus far in 2026, proceed to sign regular long-term positioning regardless of the uncertainty.

Structurally, Bitcoin continues to commerce in a uneven vary above the $60K degree, with accumulation serving to to carry this zone as help. The important thing query is whether or not this vary will resolve right into a breakout, however that gained’t occur till sentiment shifts.

That is the place the Bloomberg report turns into essential, as highlighted by AMBCrypto. Sentiment, greater than construction, is driving Bitcoin’s strikes. 

A strategic partnership between two major economies may assist restore investor confidence, making this improvement one to observe carefully.

Closing Ideas

• Regardless of structural help round $60k, Bitcoin’s strikes are pushed extra by sentiment than charts.
• Russia’s shift again to USD settlements and a possible strategic partnership may ease macro FUD, impacting each the DXY and danger belongings.