Bitcoin could hit a new ATH in Q3, but mid-term caution persists

• BTC’s mid-term outlook appeared cautious and aligned with the historic summer season lull. 
• Nonetheless, Polymarket bettors extremely anticipated a brand new ATH in Q3. 

Bitcoin [BTC] reclaimed $108.2K and prolonged its mid-week rally to just about 10%, because of comparatively calm markets after the Israel-Iran ceasefire deal. 

Regardless of the short-term optimistic outlook, nevertheless, the market was pricing in a mid-term warning, in keeping with Glassnode. 

Citing the Choices market sentiment indicator, 25 Delta Skew, the analytics agency flagged bearish sentiment as proven by the destructive skew for 3-month and 6-month tenors. 

“3m and 6m (skew) stay destructive (-2.6%, -4.3%). Mixed with a put-heavy quantity profile, this factors to decreased short-term panic, however lingering medium-term warning.”

Supply: Glassnode

This meant a premium for places (bearish bets) over calls (bullish bets) on the finish of  Q3 and December 2025. 

Summer season seasonal at play?

Unsurprisingly, the above sentiment and market positioning, particularly for Q3, mirrored the summer season seasonals. 

In accordance with CoinGlass’ historical efficiency, summer season has all the time been the worst interval for BTC. On common, BTC posted 6% returns in Q3, with the most effective interval being This autumn (85%), adopted by Q1 (54%).  

Supply: CoinGlass

Nonetheless, not all months inside Q3 carried out poorly up to now. Particularly, July has been an outlier, with 7.5% returns on common, suggesting historic weakening in August and September. 

If historical past repeats, July might provide modest beneficial properties adopted by promoting strain afterwards. Most analysts hyperlink this development to low buying and selling exercise on account of summer season holidays. 

Nonetheless, previous efficiency doesn’t assure future outcomes. 

In actual fact, Polymarket bettors had been betting in opposition to the above seasonality. The prediction web site extremely expects a brand new all-time excessive (ATH) earlier than October, with over an 85% chance for such an consequence. 

In different phrases, the market expects a push above $112K in Q3. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards echoed this consensus and eyed a possible soar to $115K by August. 

Supply: Stockmoney Lizards/X