No euphoria so far – Could this be Bitcoin’s most subtle top yet?

• Bitcoin was closing in on a key resistance on the MVRV Z-Rating, a turning level in previous cycles. 
• Will this resistance shut down the rally?

The Concern and Greed Index has but to flash “excessive greed.”

It’s a zone that traditionally aligns with Bitcoin [BTC] cycle tops. Prior to now three all-time highs, this sentiment peak coincided with tightening liquidity and provide consolidation, pushing BTC into overheated circumstances. 

So, does the present absence of euphoria counsel the market nonetheless has gas left? Presumably. However when paired with Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Rating now urgent in opposition to a critical resistance, it could sign that the market is nearing an inflection level.

For context, the MVRV Z-Rating compares Bitcoin’s market worth to its common on-chain price foundation. When the rating is excessive, it means holders are sitting on huge unrealized beneficial properties. That’s often fantastic, till sufficient of them resolve to take earnings.

Supply: Bitcoin Journal Professional

Certain, to this point the Z-Rating stays effectively beneath the pink zone that traditionally marks macro tops, the place the unfold between market cap and realized cap stretches into overheated territory. However right here’s the place the construction breaks.

Even after Bitcoin hit six figures and logged two contemporary all-time highs, the Z-Rating stayed comparatively muted. No sign of maximum overextension. And but, the market dropped, with pullbacks over 20%. 

In response to AMBCrypto, this factors to a essential shift, suggesting a brand new market variable is in play.

Low euphoria, excessive threat: A brand new type of Bitcoin high?

In previous rallies, FOMO took over. In flip, the Concern & Greed Index shot into “excessive greed,” and Bitcoin went vertical, till the market dumped. This time? The index continues to be nowhere close to euphoric ranges, and but Bitcoin’s struggling to take off.

Why? Macro uncertainty is spooking the market, capping speculative urge for food, and with margins beneath stress, buyers seem extra inclined to de-risk and lock in beneficial properties.

Bitcoin’s solely about 7% above the short-term holders’ price foundation at $98,000. With out a confirmed structural backside and volatility nonetheless anchored to macro threat, FOMO is hanging by a thread. 

Supply: Glassnode

If that thread breaks? Properly, Bitcoin could possibly be staring down essentially the most refined market high but.