Bitcoin dips 26% in Q1: How low can it go? – Experts predict… 

• BTC’s 26% drawdown could possibly be a mid-bull correction or the beginning of a bigger correction. 
•  Glassnode projected {that a} seemingly backside could possibly be hit above $70K. 

Bitcoin’s [BTC] 26% drawdown in 2025 may change into the biggest on this present cycle if the decline extends.

Based on Julio Moreno, Head of Analysis at CryptoQuant, the 2025 plunge was presently equal to the August 2024 pullback. 

Supply: CryptoQuant

After peaking at $109K in January, BTC retraced to $74K this week amid macro uncertainty — That’s over 30% correction. It has since recovered to $79K. Final 12 months, it dropped from $73K to $49K, marking a 33% decline. 

However in comparison with historic drawdowns, is BTC out of the woods, or is the worst but to come back? 

BTC — A rebound or extra ache?

Supply: Newhedge

Previous BTC drawdowns, particularly through the bear market part, had been comparatively extra extreme than the present 36%-30% decline. In 2012, 2025 and 2019, for instance, BTC dropped over 80% and lasted 6–12 months after it hit a worth peak. 

At present, BTC has declined about 30% over the previous 3 months. As such, if previous traits play out, this could be just the start of a bigger correction for the following 3-9 months.

Nevertheless, an 80% drop (to $21K) could be unlikely on condition that the important thing bull market help, the 200-weekly Shifting Common, has risen to $45K. 

Supply: BTC/USD, TradingView

Alternatively, some analysts imagine that the present cycle drawdown could be much less extreme due to market maturation. Actually, Glassnode expected a possible backside across the $ 74K-$ 70K space. 

“The draw back could decelerate a bit from right here – between $74k and $70k, there’s a complete of ~175k $BTC in price foundation clusters. The only largest stage inside this vary is $71.6k, holding ~41k $BTC.”

On-chain analyst Axel Adler, echoed an analogous stance, noting that BTC had bottomed out and was in an accumulation part, citing the STH (short-term holder) MVRV indicator, which mirrored the native backside seen final August. 

“In essence, these circumstances usually sign the tip of a correction part and the beginning of accumulation.”

Supply: CryptoQuant

Certainly, different savvy buyers, like Philip Swift and Stockmoney Lizards, had been confidently bidding at these ranges. 

Nevertheless, Moreno warned that the underside wasn’t absolutely marked, as a number of bullish indicators had been but to point out enchancment for BTC. 

In conclusion, the present 30% drawdown was nothing in comparison with the previous cycle’s bear phases, which averaged an 80% worth drop. Therefore, the present pullback could be a mid-bull correction earlier than one other leg up.  

Observe, nonetheless, that it may be the beginning of a bigger correction if bullish circumstances don’t enhance.