Is Bitcoin season near? Decoding KEY signals after BTC’s dip
Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin nearing a cycle high?
Revenue-taking stays 50% beneath previous peaks, HODLer conviction is powerful, and Bitcoin’s on-chain information exhibits no indicators of capitulation.
What’s driving the newest dip?
A $5 billion drop in Open Curiosity indicators a wholesome reset, as BTC dominance and ETF inflows preserve momentum BTC-led.
The market has formally drifted into impartial territory. With the Season Index at 55, at press time, there’s no clear dominance. Neither altcoins nor Bitcoin [BTC] are in season. On the similar time, the Worry & Greed Index mirrors this calm.
On this context, BTC’s 2.4% pullback off $125k all-time excessive mirrors previous cycle tops. Danger urge for food is low, greed muted, highlighting weak follow-through, and organising a traditional lengthy squeeze situation.
Supporting this, BTC’s Open Curiosity (OI) has dropped practically $5 billion from its $94 billion ATH, with $200 million in lengthy positions already liquidated. Does this setup counsel Bitcoin might need reached a near-term high?
Holder promoting trails, diverging from previous Bitcoin tops
Bitcoin’s at some extent the place endurance is vital for any directional bets.
CryptoQuant’s latest report exhibits some fascinating divergences. Whereas macro sentiment is gentle on “dip” shopping for, BTC provide is tight and HODLer conviction stays robust, one thing we don’t normally see at cycle tops.
Backing this, over the previous 30 days, web realized income hit 0.26 million BTC ($30 billion), about half of July’s 0.53 million BTC ($63 billion) peak and effectively beneath March and December 2024 highs of $78 billion-$99 billion.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Briefly, holders aren’t promoting, with profit-taking 50% beneath previous peaks.
In the meantime, promoting from Bitcoin “OGs” stays gentle as effectively. BTC > 10 years spent within the final 30 days totals 5k (half of the degrees seen at earlier March and December 2024 peaks and 29% beneath Might 2025 highs).
Traditionally, value tops coincide with a lot greater spending from these LTHs, reinforcing that the present rally nonetheless has room to run. Towards this backdrop, is that this dip only a “wholesome reset” earlier than Bitcoin season fires up?
One other key divergence rising in BTC dominance
The Season Index is formally nudging the market towards Bitcoin season.
Notably, it dropped 13 factors in below 72 hours, monitoring BTC’s $125k high, marking a key divergence from earlier cycle tops. Again then, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) broke assist as capital rotated into high-beta alts.
This time, the move stays BTC-led, with BTC.D up 1% and holding round 59%. Briefly, even with BTC pulling 2% off its ATH, cash’s nonetheless rotating in, backed by $440 million hitting BTC ETFs on the eighth of October.
Supply: TradingView (BTC.D)
Put merely, Bitcoin hasn’t flipped risk-off but.
Revenue-taking’s managed, no capitulation showing on-chain, alts are quiet, and institutional spot flows are nonetheless tightening provide, conserving momentum BTC-led. Briefly, all indicators counsel BTC’s high continues to be out of sight.
Given these divergences, BTC’s 2.4% pullback seems to be extra like a bullish reset than actual weak spot.
With overexposed longs cleared and futures cooling off, it’s a textbook “reset” setup as Bitcoin season begins to line up.
