Bitcoin price bottom still ahead? – 78% of BTC supply shift signals…

Has the market actually not bottomed but?

Taking a look at post-halving cycles, this concept truly carries some weight. In each 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin [BTC] tended to backside round 875 to 917 days after the halving. That timing traces up fairly carefully with the large drawdowns we noticed, about 73% within the 2018 cycle and round 64% in 2022.

If that sample holds, it will counsel we’d nonetheless be early within the present cycle. From the technical standpoint, we’re solely about 750 days into the 2024 halving cycle, which might imply the true backside hasn’t fashioned but. So the actual query is: Are we nonetheless due for a deeper correction earlier than the subsequent main leg up?

Taking a look at how the market is shaping up in Might, the thesis will get a bit extra weight. 

In March and April, Bitcoin has already posted shut to fifteen% whole upside. However some merchants assume that momentum might cool off this month, since BTC has not often managed three straight robust month-to-month closes in previous bear-like phases. And primarily based on post-halving cycle habits, Bitcoin might nonetheless be sitting in that “in-between” zone, regardless of the robust Q2 run thus far.

That mentioned, wanting again at earlier halving cycles, there’s a key divergence. 

In contrast to the 2017 cycle’s 1300%+ rally and the 2021 cycle’s 60% transfer, the 2025 leg truly closed down round -6.3%. Usually, post-halving phases are inclined to kick off robust scarcity-driven upside, however this cycle has already proven some deviation from that sample. Which raises the larger query: Will the 2026 cycle diverge from the standard 2018 and 2022-style bear market construction?

Bitcoin enters a supply-tight section as whales quietly accumulate 

Zooming out, Bitcoin’s 2026 cycle remains to be down 7.5%, broadly consistent with typical post-halving habits.

However zooming in, on-chain knowledge is displaying a distinct image. Accumulation indicators stay robust, with whale spot commerce sizes trending larger, suggesting bigger gamers are steadily absorbing provide on dips. In the meantime, capitulation indicators are fading, as Bitcoin’s internet realized revenue/loss metric has flipped again into optimistic territory, hinting that market positioning is beginning to stabilize beneath the floor.

Notably, institutional flows reinforce this pattern additional. Regardless of two days of outflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have nonetheless logged six straight weeks of internet inflows, marking their longest streak since August 2025. What’s extra, round 78.3% of BTC provide now sits with long-term holders, up from 74.1% earlier within the cycle. That 4.2 percentage-point shift equals 830,000 BTC shifting from short-term merchants into long-term wallets.

Taken collectively, on-chain knowledge factors to a provide squeeze quietly constructing beneath the floor.

From a technical view, the timing appears to be like fascinating. Bitcoin is shifting sideways round $80k, a construction that’s favoring the bulls as provide will get absorbed throughout consolidation. If this pattern holds, the growing provide shock might arrange a bear trap, doubtlessly breaking away from earlier post-halving patterns.

In flip, this might flip Might’s bearish positioning on its head, opening the door for a bullish shift and growing the possibilities that the market backside could already be in.

Closing Abstract

• Historic post-halving tendencies counsel Bitcoin could not have totally bottomed but.
• Whale accumulation and powerful ETF inflows trace {that a} provide squeeze might flip bearish sentiment right into a bullish transfer.